Denis Chernyavskyi, Deputy Director of Monetary Policy Department of National Bank of Kazakhstan Commented on Household Inflation Expectations in January 2021

According to the results of the January survey, the inflation expectations of households have somewhat decreased. The quantitative estimate of the inflation expectations for the year ahead amounted to 6.7% (compared to 7.6% in December 2020).

The share of respondents who expect the current rate of price growth or even faster price growth over the next 12 months has decreased to 43% (compared to 50% in December 2020).

91% of the respondents noted a rapid increase in the food prices (compared to 88% in December 2020). In particular, the share of respondents who noted an increase in prices for fruits and vegetables (from 21% to 27%) and eggs (from 13% to 25%) increased.

The share of respondents who noted an increase in prices for sugar (18%), vegetable oil (35%), bakery products (26%) slightly decreased, but remains considerable over the past months.

The trend of improvement in the consumer sentiment continues as a result of an increase in the positive assessments of the current financial standing and more positive expectations for the economic development. Most of the respondents noted the invariability of their financial standing over the past year, the share of the negative assessments continues to decrease. Positive expectations still prevail on the future financial state.

Propensity for making big purchases has slightly improved compared to the previous month due to the growth of the positive assessments.

In January 2021, the short and long term expectations for the economic development continued to improve. In assessments of the economic development for the year ahead the share of optimistic answers increased.