Denis Chernyavskiy, Deputy Director of Monetary Policy Department of the National Bank of Kazakhstan commented on the Inflationary Expectations of the Population in November 2020

According to the results of the November survey inflationary expectations of the population have significantly increased under the conditions of prices’ growth for separate types of goods and a high level of uncertainty. The quantitative estimate of the inflationary expectations for the year ahead amounted to 7.8 per cent in November 2020, comparing with 7.3 per cent in October 2020.

The share of respondents who expect current rate of price growth or even faster price growth over the next year amounted to 52 per cent – in comparison, it was 51 per cent in October 2020. The share of respondents who were uncertain with their replies increased to 31 per cent in November comparing with 29 per cent in October 2020, having renewed the historical highs.

Among the respondents who noted the prices’ growth, the median estimate of the expected inflation within one year period¹ remained unchanged – 16.7 per cent (in October it was 16.7 per cent), and the inflationary perception² has lowered to 18.8 per cent (to 19.7 per cent).

The share of respondents, who noted the prompt growth of prices for food products have continued to grow. In particular, the growth is noted in vegetable oil, eggs and sugar.

At the same time, there is an improvement of the consumer sentiment due to a less negative assessment of the financial situation.

¹ The median estimate was based on the respondents’ replies to the question of how much the prices are expected to change in 12 months

² The median estimate was based on the respondents’ replies to the question of how much the prices have changed within the last 12 months