Comment on households` inflation expectations in October 2021 by Denis Chernyavskiy, Deputy Director of Monetary Policy Department of the NBK

Quantitative assessment of one-year ahead inflation expectations in October 2021 made 10.3% (9% in September). Most respondents - 33% (26% in September) - expect growing prices over the next 12 months, which is the highest  level in the public poll.

Inflation perceptions remain elevated. In October households continued to highlight surging food prices, in particular prices for meat and poultry, bakery products, vegetable oil, fruit and vegetables. Growing prices for fuel and lubricants, utility services as well asclothing and footwear were reported.

Consumer sentiments in October remained practically unchanged, while assessments of the country's development prospects slightly improved. The deterioration was reported in assessments of both the current and future financial situation. Against this background, respondents began to economise more on food purchases. A large share of respondents (35%) considers that currently it is unfavorable to make big-budget purchases ; in October this share slightly increased.

Share of respondents who have a loan, including for consumer purposes (from 30% in July to 33% in October), has increased, and share of the saving population has declined (from 19% in September to 16% in October).