In August 2022, the National Bank started publishing a macroeconomic survey.
The macroeconomic survey is aimed at improving the communication of the National Bank with professional market participants. Building a dialogue with the expert community is designed to reduce the information asymmetry between the regulator and the market.
The survey involves the organizations engaged in the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic indicators for Kazakhstan. The respondents included professional market participants, research institutes, international organizations, as well as rating agencies. The list may be expanded in the future.
The macroeconomic survey does not contain forecasts of the National Bank. It is a review of independent opinion, estimates and expectations of professional market participants on the development of the situation in the domestic and global markets.
The survey is to be conducted regularly at least 4 times a year before decisions on the base rate.
Survey results: May 2023
(in brackets are the results of the survey in March 2023)
|
Indicator |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
|
Brent oil price |
99.1 |
82.4 (83.1) |
78.7 (80.0) |
73.0 (80.0) |
|
GDP |
3.3* |
4.0 (3.7) |
4.0 (4.0) |
4.0 (4.0) |
|
CPI |
20.3 |
11.8 (12.2) |
8.4 (8.8) |
7.2 (7.2) |
|
Base rate |
13.9 |
16.2 (15.7) |
13.0 (11.7) |
9.5 (9.0) |
|
Exports of goods and services |
94.1 |
85.3 (89.3) |
86.4 (93.0) |
90.7 (90.7) |
|
Imports of goods and services |
59.2 |
59.6 (59.5) |
61.0 (60.7) |
61.4 (60.0) |
|
USD/KZT exchange rate |
460.5 |
462.3 (472.0) |
487.8 (496.0) |
510.0 (516.0) |
|
Neutral base rate* |
9.0 (8.5) |
|
Long-term GDP growth** |
4.0 (3.9) |
*Preliminary estimates of the BNS ASPR
**Base rate level at which monetary policy keeps inflation and inflation expectations on target over the long term and also GDP at its potential
***Expected average growth rates of potential GDP over a 5-year horizon
In regard to the macroeconomic survey, please contact macroforecast@nationalbank.kz.