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Monetary policy

Inflation and Inflationary Expectations
Inflation targeting
Base Rate
Exchange Rate Policy
Monetary Policy Guidelines
Monetary Policy Decision-Making Process
Press-releases on the Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy Instruments
Inflation Report
Enterprise Monitoring
FAQ Regarding the Monetary Policy

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy is a part of the economic policy and refers to the actions that a central bank takes in order to influence the money supply. The primary objective of the National Bank is to ensure price stability in the economy.

To achieve this goal, the National Bank conducts monetary policy within the inflation targeting framework. The shift to an inflation targeting regime was announced on August 20, 2015.

 

Goal of the National Bank of Kazakhstan

The primary objective of the National Bank is to ensure price stability in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The price stability means achieving and maintaining low inflation rate. Low inflation allows to maintain the purchasing power of the population, reduce economic uncertainty, promote the growth of long-term investments into production and boost the economic growth, improve public welfare.

In 2016-2017, the target benchmark of the National Bank was the corridor of annual inflation of 6-8%. Starting in 2018, the target parameters are reduced as part of the strategy to achieve the medium-term goal of inflation.

Inflation targets are set as follows:

  • 5-7% at the end of 2018,
  • 4-6% at the end of 2019,

Below but close to 4% at the end of 2020 and in the coming years.

 

Inflation

Inflation is an overall increase in the price level of goods and services. The inflation is affected by a lot of internal and external factors including the level of business activity, output gap (the gap between actual GDP and its potential level), labor productivity, household cash income, employment rate, the extent of market competition, adequate supply of goods and services, prices in the global commodity markets and other factors.

To calculate the inflation, the consumer price index (CPI) is used; it is an indicator of an overall change in prices of goods and services purchased by the population for consumption (basket of consumer goods and services). The basket reflects the structure of household spending and includes goods and services which comprise the largest relative share in the household consumption. The CPI is calculated as the cost of consumer basket in the current period relative to some base period.

The CPI is calculated by the Committee on Statistics of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

 

Inflationary Expectations

Inflationary expectations reflect assumptions of the population and of the market participants regarding a future inflation pattern.

Assumptions regarding a possible inflation pattern in future have impact on the economic activity of the population and the market. If inflationary expectations are low, the market participants will be trying to invest their money into the production, investment projects, and financial operations. If inflationary expectations are high, then the market participants will be investing their money into goods, real estate, stable foreign currency as well as other valuables whose cost does not depend on the inflation rate in the country.

Since January 2016, the public opinion polls have been conducted to measure inflationary expectations in Kazakhstan. A monthly poll is conducted among the adult population via a telephone interview, with 1500 respondents participating.

 

Inflation targeting

Inflation targeting is a monetary policy regime oriented at setting and attaining an inflation target in the medium term. A distinguishing feature of this regime is to clearly define the monetary policy objectives and priorities thus fostering favorable expectations of the population and the market and increasing confidence in central bank credibility.

In an inflation targeting regime, an important role is devoted to the interest rate channel through which the central bank’s interest rate policy influences market rates with a further pass-through to the consumer, saving and investment behavior of the population and, eventually, to inflationary processes. The main instrument of the National Bank’s monetary policy is the base rate.

An inflation forecast where inflationary expectations of the population are taken into account is used as an intermediate target for the decision-making about the interest rate level. In case, if in the medium term the forecasted inflation exceeds its target, the central bank makes the decision to raise the existing level of the base rate, and vice versa.

A short-term interest rate in the money market is used as an operating target; generally, this is an overnight rate.

 

Exchange Rate Policy

The existing exchange rate policy regime is a floating exchange rate of the tenge. The exchange rate is formed under the impact of fundamental factors. The world oil prices as well as exchange rates of countries-main trading partners, Russia in the first instance, serve as key fundamental factors for the fluctuations of tenge.

A free floating exchange rate regime enables to effectively absorb emerging external shocks. Advantages of floating exchange rate regime are the market-based attaining of an equilibrium level of real exchange rate, maintaining competitiveness of domestic producers of goods, preventing significant imbalances in the current account and avoiding reduction in international reserves. The National Bank does not interfere in the exchange rate formation process, while reserving the right to intervene in order to prevent from dramatic fluctuations of the tenge exchange rate as well as to ensure the financial system’s stability. In general, interventions do not contradict to the floating exchange rate policy and may be used by central banks to build up the country’s international reserves.

 

Monetary Policy Instruments

Through these instruments, the National Bank regulates liquidity and interest rates in the money market, influences lending activity of banks and exercises control over the volume of money supplyin circulation.

Open Market Operations are regular operations of the National Bank in the form of auctions for provision or absorption of liquidity in the money market with a view to set interbank interest rates around the base rate. Open market operations are conducted at the National Bank’s initiative. Highly liquid and risk-free securities are used as collateral while conducting open market operations.

Standing Facilities are monetary policy instruments used to adjust liquidity volumes which resulted from open market operations. The main objective of standing facilities is to limit volatility of short-term interest rates in the money market. Such operations are conducted at the initiative of banks.

Minimum Reserve Requirements are used to regulate the structural liquidity as well as liquidity and interest rates in the interbank money market. By changing its minimum reserve requirements, a central bank regulates the demand from banks for its reserves and, by using its instruments, it maintains the money market liquidity at the level enabling to keep short-term interbank interest rates within the required band.

Purpose

Type of Instrument

Instrument

Collateral

Frequency

Provision / withdrawal duration

liquidity provision

standing facilities

KASE currency swap

USD

upon request from commercial banks

1 day

KASE Reverse Repo

government bonds

upon request from commercial banks

1 day

open market operations

NBK auction for the purchase of securities with the reverse sale

Lombard List

as needed

7 days

liquidity withdrawal

NBK Notes Auction

-

in accordance with the schedule of issuance of notes

7, 28, 91, 182, 364 days

standing facilities

KASE currency swap

USD

upon request from commercial banks

1 day

KASE Direct Repo

government bonds

upon request from commercial banks

1 day

NBK Deposits

no collateral

upon request from commercial banks

1, 7 days

 

Base Rate

The base rate is a key monetary policy instrument of the National Bank that helps to regulate nominal interbank interest rates in the money market. By setting the level of the base rate, the National Bank determines a target value of the targeted interbank short-term money market rate in order to achieve the goal of ensuring price stability in the medium term.

TONIA Rate –weighted average interest rate on overnight repo opening transactions made on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange in the automatic repo sector – represents a target interbank short-term interest rate of the money market.

The change in the base rate affects the inflation rate via interest rates in the money market and the exchange rate. For example, the increase in the base rate leads to the growth in interest rates of the money market, followed by the increase in the cost of funds in the financial market; this, in turn, affects the decision-making about consumption and saving by the population and enterprises. The reduced consumption and increased savings put a downward pressure on the inflation. Apart from that, an increase in the base rate promotes appreciation of the domestic currency, which, in turn, has a downward pressure on the inflation.

Along with that, the change in the base rate affects the medium-term inflation whereas its impact in the short-term is limited.

The National Bank makes decision regarding the base rate in accordance with the pre-determined schedule  or as necessary.

 

Monetary Policy Decision-Making Process

In 2018, decisions about the base rate will be announced at 5.00 pm Astana time on the following dates:

 - January 15;

 - March 5;

 - April 16;

 - June 4;

 - July 9;

 - September 3;

 - October 15;

 - December 3.

 

Monetary Policy Guidelines

Monetary Policy Guidelines represent a document which is drafted by the National Bank on an annual basis. The document contains the monetary policy outcomes for the past year and the guidelines for the coming year.

 

Inflation Report

In its decision-making regarding the level of the base rate, the National Bank performs the analysis and makes estimates for macroeconomic variables including for the inflation. The analysis is performed on a quarterly basis; forecasts are made for the time horizon of up to 6-8 quarters. The analysis and forecast results are published in the National Bank’s periodical entitled the Inflation Report. The periodical has been issued on a quarterly basis since 2004.

 

Enterprise Monitoring

The National Bank of Kazakhstan, via its regional branches, conducts a survey among company managers in order to assess the current business climate in the real sector of the country’s economy. The questions are aimed at identifying the major trends in the business environment: actual values and expectations of enterprises regarding the change in the demand for final products of enterprises; the change in prices of final products, raw materials and supplies; and the change in the need for and availability of credit resources for enterprises.

The document which governs the surveys of business climate is the Concept Paper for the Development of the Real Sector Monitoring for 2013-2017 as approved by the Resolution of the Board of Directors of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan No.130 of April 24, 2013.

  • Market Review. Outcomes of Enterprise Surveys in the Economy.

Based on outcomes of the survey, the Market Review is prepared. It describes the state of the business climate in the real sector by designing the system of leading and coincident indicators. Indicators of the business climate and economic activity of enterprises that were reflected in the review: the change in the demand for final products of enterprises; the change in prices of final products, raw materials and supplies and in the need for and availability of credit resources for enterprises; impact made on the business activities of enterprises in the real sector of the economy by the change in exchange rates of foreign currencies versus the tenge.

  • Industry-specific Market Review. Outcomes of Enterprise Surveys Broken Down by Industries (industries: the mining and the manufacturing industry, construction, trade, transport and warehousing)

The Market Review of the real sector broken down by key industries of the Kazakh economy reflects the situation in the industry which enables  company managers to use information – comparing the enterprise performance over time with the industry-specific performance indicators of resource utilizations, cost and price management, the change in the structure of capital and assets. In addition to indicators used in the main review, financial ratios characterizing the financial standing of enterprises are provided.

 

Economic Overview

The National Bank prepares a brief economic overview on a monthly basis. The overview reflects key economic indicators of Kazakhstan, on the basis of updated information published by the MNE’s Committee on Statistics and other official sources. The overview serves as a basis for preparing express analytical data about the state of the Kazakh economy.


  

Consultation according to Article IV of the IMF mission

Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission

The preliminary conclusions of consultation according to Article IV of the IMF mission

IMF Public Information Notice


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